🦉 The Night Owl Newsletter for November 2nd

Unsubscribe The Night Owl, From Early Bird Publishing While NASDAQ prices in fantasy, prepared investors are moving (From StockEarnings)tc pixel AbbVie's Humira Era Is Fading, But Its New Growth Engines Face Another Test Written by Thomas Hughes AbbVie logo over a laboratory scene with vials, a pipette, and a DNA helix illustration. Believe it or not, Humira still drives headlines for AbbVie (NYSE: ABBV), despite contributing little to the company's growth. Once AbbVie's biggest revenue driver, sales fell to a paltry $683 million in Q3 due to its long-feared patent cliff, a catalyst that has come and gone. The patent cliff was once a market driver, but it's best forgotten. New blockbusters more than offset the difference, with Skyrizi alone bringing in more than $5.7 billion for the quarter, and a rapidly diversifying business could set the stage for long-term success. AbbVie completed the Apogee Therapeutics acquisition during the quarter. Apogee Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharma focused on immunological and inflammatory diseases, complementing AbbVie’s core portfolio with several therapies in development. Other growth avenues include the Neurosciences and Oncology segments, which have promising pipelines of their own, in addition to today's drivers. The Neurosciences segment is supported by Vraylar and Botox Therapeutic, along with Ubrelvy and Qulipta. Oncology is also contributing, although growth has been more modest. Looking ahead, the company has approximately one dozen promising therapies in advanced testing across segments, including expanded treatments for Skyrizi and Rinvoq. AbbVie expects those two drugs to generate more than $32 billion in combined sales in 2026. AbbVie (ABBV) stock chart shows a bullish breakout from consolidation, with rising moving averages supporting the rally. AbbVie Beats and Raises: Raises Dividend, Stock Price Follows AbbVie reported third-quarter results, with revenue of $17.4 billion, up 10.3% year over year and just above consensus. Sales were driven by a 16.3% increase in Immunology, including solid gains in Skyrizi and Rinvoq, a 19.4% increase in Neurosciences, and a 0.8% increase in Oncology. Aesthetics, including Botox Cosmetic, fell 1.4% but remains a cash driver. Margin news is more impressive, with costs and acquired in-process research and development (IPR&D) milestones far less than last year, resulting in wider gross and operating margins. Adjusted operating margin came in at nearly 49%, up almost 18 percentage points, sufficient to drive triple-digit increases in the GAAP and adjusted earnings figures. Adjusted earnings per share of $3.82 grew 105%, outperforming MarketBeat’s consensus by about nine cents and enabling management to raise guidance for the second time this year. The company significantly raised its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) target, setting the low end at $13.95, in line with consensus, and the high at $13.99. ABBV could perform near the high end of its forecast or potentially outperform it, given Q3 strengths and developments, including expanded approvals for key drugs. AbbVie’s Dividend Growth Trajectory Is as Healthy as Ever AbbVie’s investment appeal lies in its growth but centers on profitability, cash flow, and its capacity for capital returns. Share buybacks aren’t the primary driver but help keep the share count steady while dividends are distributed. The current dividend yields approximately 2.41% in early November, more than double the broad market average, with above-average distribution growth also forecasted. AbbVie has a Dividend King-level dividend growth record, including its history with Abbott Laboratories. Analysts' response to Q3 results and guidance included several price target increases. Some analyst targets reach $340 or higher, and MarketBeat tracks 30 analyst ratings. The commentary focuses on execution and the higher guidance, which keeps them bullish. As it stands, the 30 analysts tracked rate the stock as a Moderate Buy with an 80% Buy-side bias and no Sell ratings logged, forecasting a slight correction at the consensus, but the trend matters. Consensus is up versus last year, last quarter, and early October, providing a tailwind. Institutional investors have also been buying ABBV in 2026, with institutional ownership now exceeding 70% of shares. This reflects substantial institutional interest, although it doesn't guarantee support during market pullbacks. ABBV’s biggest risks are upcoming patent cliffs, including one for Skyrizi in 2033. Rinvoq also faces a cliff, but it's been pushed back until much later in the coming decade due to legal settlements. The offset is seven more years of Rinvoq growth and dominance, compounded by a robust pipeline that strengthens quarterly. Humira is no longer a risk. Chart price action is favorable following the release. ABBV shares moved up to a fresh high, breaking out of near-term consolidation. The pattern suggests potential upside of about $30, putting the near-term target near $320, just below the high end of analysts' forecasts. Longer-term price targets are even more favorable, reflecting expectations for continued growth. READ THIS STORY ONLINE Palantir Micron and SanDisk Show a Familiar Pattern (Ad) tc pixel Palantir Micron and SanDisk Show a Familiar Pattern Palantir, Micron and SanDisk show how fast a stock can become the trade everyone suddenly wants. That's often when investors make their costliest mistake: arriving after the easy part of the move is gone. A new premium eBook flags 7 stocks that may be worth knowing about before the broader crowd catches on. You don't need to buy any of them - just knowing what's quietly gaining attention can be useful. SEE THE 7 STOCKS ON THE WATCHLIST WHILE IT'S STILL FREE GLP-1 Focus or Broader Peptide Exposure: Which ETF Has the Edge? Written by Nathan Reiff GLP-1 injection pens and tablets on a desk with rising market chart, highlighting obesity drug demand and pharma stocks. As the latest earnings results from pharma giant Eli Lilly and Co. (NYSE: LLY) confirm, GLP-1 agonists are still a very big business. Despite changes to Medicare and a reimbursement program in China that could threaten to drag down prices and cut into margins, massive volume growth for some of the leading GLP-1 products has helped companies like Eli Lilly improve revenue by a whopping 39% year over year (YOY) in Q3 2026. The demand remains massive. Investors looking to get in on this opportunity have multiple options: in addition to the drugmakers themselves, there are now dedicated exchange-traded funds (ETFs) providing broader industry access. These include the Roundhill GLP-1 & Weight Loss ETF (NASDAQ: OZEM), which has a particular focus on GLP-1s. Recently, though, an alternative fund utilizing a similar strategy launched: the REX Peptide ETF (NASDAQ: PEPT), which began trading in October 2026. Though it remains much smaller than its established peer OZEM, it offers a distinct approach that is not entirely interchangeable. OZEM: A Direct Bet on a Much-Hyped Industry OZEM holds a basket of 28 stocks from the pharmaceutical industry, focused specifically on companies developing GLP-1 agonists for weight loss and the treatment of certain types of diabetes. The companies included in OZEM's portfolio are global, but the biggest names—Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE: NVO)—both dominate U.S. health care listings. The GLP-1 industry market has relatively few major players, as there remain only a small number of commercially available drugs, and an even smaller number of those drugs with broad popularity among patients and providers. It's no surprise, then, that LLY and NVO together make up more than a quarter of OZEM's investments. Looking at performance, OZEM has recently found itself somewhere between these two stocks. LLY has had a highly successful year, returning 32% year to date (YTD). NVO has struggled, however, with shares falling by over 20% in the same period. OZEM has also fallen, though only by about 10%. Still, its performance is closer to NVO's than to LLY's—investors may wonder whether they would have been better off focusing on that stock instead of the broader fund. Nonetheless, OZEM may be a good option for investors looking to capture potential momentum from smaller players in the GLP-1 space as new drugs enter commercialization. With an annual fee of 0.59%, the fund is modestly priced for an actively managed product. However, about two and a half years after launch, it remains small, with an asset base of around $54 million and quite modest trading volumes. PEPT: A Broader Option With Critical Overlap GLP-1s are an example of peptide-based medicines, a broader category of drugs that also includes hormonal and endocrine products, sexual health, and others. PEPT is the first fund to focus on this broader category, allowing it not only to capture some of the growing GLP-1 market but also to benefit from the success of other peptides. Peptides are complex medicines that require lengthy R&D periods, which means manufacturing capacity remains fairly low. When a drug does come to market, however, it can therefore command a high price. There have indeed been approvals of peptides outside the GLP-1 space this year, including medicines to treat blood cancers and plaque psoriasis, among other indications. Given its recent launch, it is difficult to compare PEPT to OZEM based on performance alone. Similarly, the fund has only a fraction of OZEM's already low asset base. In other ways, though, the two funds are more similar. For one, PEPT has a similar number of holdings at 35 positions. Eli Lilly is also the largest of the positions, here representing about 13% of the asset base. NVO is another 10%. Beyond this, however, there are companies listed in PEPT that are not found in OZEM. Still, the two funds have similar baskets, and investors will want to keep this in mind: it likely doesn't make sense to hold positions in both funds given this overlap. At the same time, PEPT takes a passive approach by tying to a preexisting index, but it actually has a higher annual fee than OZEM at 0.65%. OZEM provides access to a massive and fast-growing market, but its concentration may be concerning. The industry faces regulatory risk, competition, valuation concerns, and more. PEPT takes a broader approach that may pay off if GLP-1s struggle, though its passive management style may make it less adaptable than OZEM. Still, investors may find that simply targeting some of the best-performing GLP-1-maker stocks yields favorable results. READ THIS STORY ONLINE While NASDAQ prices in fantasy, prepared investors are moving (Ad) tc pixel While NASDAQ prices in fantasy, prepared investors are moving Gold just broke another record - a classic flight-to-safety signal that the smartest money on Wall Street is already acting on. With the NASDAQ pricing in optimism over fundamentals and global tensions continuing to rise, a market correction could arrive without warning. Our research team just released a free crash-protection guide identifying which stocks and sectors can hold strong even when the broader market crumbles. DOWNLOAD YOUR FREE CRASH PROTECTION GUIDE TODAY Mortgage Rates Froze U.S. Housing, But These 3 Overseas Markets Still Pay Double Digits Written by Bridget Bennett 3 Overseas Real Estate Markets Where Cheap Debt and Rental Yields Still Line Up American mortgage rates have done something unusual to the housing conversation: they’ve made buying feel like a lifestyle decision again instead of an investment one. Home sales slow, headlines fixate on the rate print, and property quietly drops off a lot of portfolios. Ronan McMahon of Real Estate Trend Alert argues that’s a geography problem, not an asset problem. His focus is international property, and he says the opportunities simply aren’t in the United States right now. They’re in destinations pulling in buyers from across the globe, where he’s actively borrowing from 2.6%. Elevated borrowing costs are largely a U.S. phenomenon, which means capital that looks stuck at home can be put to work on very different terms a border or two away. Why Property Abroad Works as an Income Asset, Not Just a Second Home McMahon says 80% to 90% of his net worth sits in real estate across nine countries, chosen deliberately as a wealth-building vehicle rather than a lifestyle purchase. His reasoning: many overseas markets aren’t well studied, so applying lessons from mature U.S. and European markets to emerging ones can put a buyer ahead of local pricing. In the right market at the right moment, he says that can mean gross yields in the 12% to 14% range alongside years of double-digit appreciation. His planning horizon is at least 8 years. Shorter flips happen, but conservative investors should underwrite for the longer hold. He also limits where he’ll buy at all, sticking to countries where foreign owners have the same legal protections as locals and where rule of law is genuinely enshrined. That filter alone rules out most of the world. Panama City Turns Corporate Tenants Into Rental Yield Ranked third on his list, Panama City is a true global hub attracting multinational corporations and internationally mobile professionals. The play is top-of-market luxury condos leased long-term to corporate executives or affluent locals, with entry near $400 per square foot, a steep discount to comparable global hub cities. Short-term rentals face extensive regulation here, so income comes from stable long leases. Financing also looks different. Low rates aren’t available, but buyers can get pre-approved for developer financing and pay the developer over time, which trades interest rate risk for counterparty risk. McMahon handles that by favoring multi-generational developer families who’ve survived multiple crises, and by reviewing their financials before committing. Guanacaste Benefits From Costa Rica’s Liberia Airport Upgrade Costa Rica’s northwest corner ranks second, and accessibility is the catalyst. Liberia Airport has scaled from a small operation into a real international gateway, feeding retirees, second-home buyers, vacationers, and remote-working families into towns like Tamarindo and Playa Flamingo. Expect roughly $400,000 to $500,000 for an amenity-rich condo or home aimed at affluent international renters. Borrowing is in dollars at rates comparable to the United States, so this market favors buyers deploying capital rather than leverage. McMahon’s warning here is what he calls the margarita effect: a friendly stranger in a beach bar is not due diligence. Lawyers, accountants, and rental managers are non-negotiable. Lagos, Portugal Pairs Cheap Mortgages With Year-Round Demand His top pick is Lagos on the western Algarve, a historic old town beside a modern marina with beaches that have ranked among the world’s best. Demand arrives from northern Europe, the United States, and the Middle East, and owners can run short-term, long-term, or a mix with personal use. Financing is where Lagos separates from the other two. Buyers can borrow from roughly 2.5% to 2.6%, and non-EU citizens, including Americans and Canadians, hold the same purchase rights. The one real constraint is age: depending on the bank, the mortgage must be paid off by 75 or 80. On short-term rentals, McMahon points to gross yields in the 12% to 16% range, netting closer to 7% to 8% after taxes and costs, with appreciation on top. His own baseline is doubling invested capital every 5 years. McMahon walks through the full mechanics in his free book, The Big Book of Profitable Real Estate Investing — how to qualify for a foreign mortgage, structure ownership, handle the tax side, and build the local team that runs the property when you’re not there. A Lower-Cost Option for Buyers Who Don’t Want Tenants Not every buyer wants to be a landlord. For those who want weather, food, and community without rental income, McMahon points to Sicily, where a nice home can start around $70,000 to $80,000. He’s skeptical of the widely publicized 1-euro home programs; spending $50,000 to $100,000 on an already renovated property in a better town tends to deliver far more value. Investors who want rental income without a passport can get there through real estate sector stocks or real estate investment trusts, trading some of the yield for liquidity and no maintenance calls. What overseas property adds is currency and geographic diversification a domestic portfolio can’t replicate on its own. Execution is where these deals succeed or fail. A yield model built in a spreadsheet at home has to survive another legal system, another tax regime, and a team you’ve never worked with. Watch the developer’s financials, the local rental rules, and the strength of your people on the ground, because those are what turn a stunning location into an actual return. READ THIS STORY ONLINE Trump and Musk are circling the same $5 stock (Ad) tc pixel Trump and Musk are circling the same $5 stock A newly surfaced executive order targets an $8 to $16 trillion stockpile of critical metals essential for smartphones, electric vehicles, fighter jets, and AI data centers. One small company, trading under $5 per share, reportedly has the tools and technology to help tap this resource at scale - drawing attention from Washington and from Elon Musk's metal-dependent ventures. SEE THE EXECUTIVE ORDER AND THE STOCK DETAILS NOW More Stories Royal Caribbean Buys the Beach as Norwegian Fixes the Ship SK hynix Says Memory Demand Beats Supply Through 2030—What It Means for Micron and SanDisk Nvidia's Huang doubts Musk's latest mega plan can work (Ad)tc pixel Uranium Prices Are Near Historic Highs—So Why Hasn’t Cameco Followed? STMicroelectronics Could Reach New Highs—Here's What Needs to Happen Alphabet’s $400 Billion Sell-Off Could Be the Best AI Buying Window Left in 2026 3 Waste Services Stocks With More Growth Than You Might Expect The Night Owl is a financial newsletter that provides in-depth market analysis on stocks of interest to individual investors. Published by MarketBeat and Early Bird Publishing, The Night Owl is delivered around 9:00 PM Eastern Sunday through Thursday. If you give a hoot about the market, The Night Owl is the newsletter for you. The Night Owl Newsletter. 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