Two Sides to the Story for This 5% Yielder
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T. Rowe Price: Two Sides to the Story
Marc Lichtenfeld, Chief Income Strategist, The Oxford Club
Marc Lichtenfeld
T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW) manages $1.8 trillion for clients and offers more than 100 mutual funds and ETFs.
The stock sports a generous 5% yield. Let's see if that yield is likely to be maintained.
T. Rowe Price generated $1.5 billion in free cash flow in 2025, which was a 17% increase over 2024. However, the three-year growth rate was negative, as the company's free cash flow totaled $2.1 billion in 2022.
The Safety Net model penalizes a company if its free cash flow growth is negative over one- and three-year periods, so T. Rowe Price's three-year growth rate causes a downgrade.
The asset manager gets another downgrade because free cash flow is forecast to decline to $1.4 billion this year. If free cash flow comes in higher than last year's figure, that penalty will be removed, but we won't see the 2026 results for about a year.
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In 2025, the company paid shareholders $1.1 billion for a payout ratio of 77%. That is just above the 75% cutoff, so the stock gets whacked with another downgrade.
This year, with cash flow expected to decline, the payout ratio is projected to increase to 82%, pulling further away from the comfort zone. That's another downgrade.
The good news is that T. Rowe Price has raised its dividend every year for an impressive 40 years.
Chart: T. Rowe Price's 40-Year Dividend Streak
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Management clearly takes its dividend-raising history seriously.
But is a four-decade streak enough to make up for the concerns in the company's profile?
Get TROW's Grade Here
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