A New Stage of the AI Race

Stansberry Research Logo Delivering World-Class Financial Research Since 1999 Stansberry Digest Nvidia, dethroned?... Alphabet's AI shock wave... Stay tuned... More poor jobs data points to a December rate cut... A sour holiday season... Trump's Christmas gift... We have ourselves a good, old-fashioned competition... With the benchmark S&P 500 Index closing higher for a third consecutive trading day, concerns of an artificial-intelligence ("AI") bubble have been pushed aside. The glowing sentiment around Alphabet (GOOGL) – and its growing strength in the AI space – has boosted tech stocks and the indexes once again. We covered this trend last week when we wrote about some recent big-money buyers of Alphabet shares: Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B) and Stanley Druckenmiller's Duquesne Family Office... and our colleague Whitney Tilson's insistence that Alphabet is one of his favorite investments among S&P 500 companies. Over the past few days, Alphabet has had more good news... Its new Gemini 3 AI model has generated a lot of positive reviews. And last night, a report said that Meta Platforms (META) might sign a multibillion deal to buy Alphabet's chips to help power its data centers, rather than use Nvidia's (NVDA) chips, which Meta has primarily used for its AI infrastructure up to this point. It has been a good week for Alphabet, which is now closing in on Nvidia's market-leading $4 trillion-plus market cap. Alphabet shares are hitting new all-time highs, while Nvidia shares fell about 3% today. Nvidia, seemingly perturbed by this, put out a public relations statement on social platform X today saying, "we're delighted by Google's success – they've made great advances in AI," but Nvidia is "a generation ahead of the industry – it's the only platform that runs every AI model and does it everywhere computing is done." We'll see how the AI race plays out. But the market is about more than just one or two stocks (no matter how top-heavy the tech-led indexes might be)... Today's labor market data all but secured a December rate cut... As we wrote yesterday, market expectations for what the Federal Reserve will do at its next meeting in December have flipped back to favoring a rate cut over the past few days. In addition to New York Fed President John Williams' speech last week (suggesting that the Fed could lower rates again next month), Fed Governor Christopher Waller and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly both said yesterday they were in favor of rate cuts. Both Waller and Daly cited concerns about the labor market as the reason for potential future rate cuts, just like Williams. And this morning, Fed Governor Stephen Miran – the White House's biggest ally pushing for lower rates – went on television to give a very "dovish" view. In an interview with Fox Business, Miran called for "large interest rate cuts," highlighting the recent four-year high in the unemployment rate. From the interview... We have to recognize that the unemployment rate has been drifting higher, and that is a function of monetary policy being too tight. They have good reason to be concerned... A jobs report today from payroll processor ADP showed that U.S. private employers shed an average of 13,500 jobs per week in the four weeks ending November 8. That's up from losing 2,500 jobs per week in the four-week period ending November 1. Put simply, job losses are accelerating. The four-week moving average is the worst it has been in three months. And ADP doesn't expect things to change anytime soon. From the report... Consumer strength remains in question as we enter the holiday hiring season, which might be playing into delayed or curtailed job creation. But that wasn't the last of the economic data we saw today. More red flags about the U.S. consumer... The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index declined again in November – hitting its lowest level since the post-Liberation Day tariff tantrum in April. And the expectations index, which measures folks' short-term economic outlook, remained below the warning signal level of 80 for the 10th straight month. Meanwhile, the component measuring sentiment around current financial conditions hit a 15-month low. And the share of consumers saying they believe the economy is already in a recession rose for the fourth straight month. On the labor market, only 27.6% of respondents said jobs were "plentiful" – down from 28.6% last month... and 14.6% expected more jobs to be available in the short term – down from 15.8% last month. That's bad news for the economy... especially entering the holiday season... The last months of the year are typically the most important for retailers. With folks doing about 20% of all spending in November and December, lower consumer confidence during this period could make them pull back on shopping. The National Retail Federation expects retail sales to grow by about 4% during the holiday season this year and pass $1 trillion for the first time. That's still above the average growth rate from 2010 to 2019, but it would be the slowest growth rate since 2019. Like we said last week when we covered Target's (TGT) and Home Depot's (HD) quarterly earnings reports, the consumer is flashing a warning sign for the economy. Meanwhile, inflation is still a thing... With the government reopened, we're getting more and more shutdown-delayed official economic data to chew on. This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics ("BLS") released its Producer Price Index ("PPI") for September. In September, prices rose 0.3% from the previous month, matching Wall Street's expectations. And on a year-over-year basis, the PPI rose 2.7%, more than the 2.6% increase that analysts had been expecting. Energy prices were to blame... The energy component of the PPI rose 3.5% from August to September, by far the largest monthly increase over the last 12 months. As we've written, AI's huge power demands are bringing up electricity prices. The slightly better news: On a core basis, which doesn't include energy and food prices, the PPI rose 0.2% from the month before and 2.6% from September 2024. Both of those were below what analysts were expecting. So overall, while inflation is still continuing, and will so long as we have fiat currency, this price data won't be high enough to take the Fed's attention away from the labor market... and expectations for more rate cuts to come. Fed-funds futures traders have nearly 85% odds on a cut at the Fed's next meeting on December 9 and December 10... and this same group is expecting more in 2026. That makes sense when you consider... Trump's holiday-season gift... It appears that President Donald Trump might gift himself a new Federal Reserve chair by Christmas. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on CNBC this morning that "there's a very good chance" Trump "will make an announcement before Christmas... or in the new year." With current Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ending in May, Bessent has been leading the interviews for possible replacements. But if Trump makes an announcement soon, it will essentially preempt the end of Powell's term... and put thoughts of a lower-interest rate environment even more firmly in the brains of investors. The finalists for the job are thought to be National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, BlackRock executive Rick Rieder, and current Fed Governors Waller and Michelle Bowman. Trump has said he wanted Bessent to take the job, but Bessent wanted to remain Treasury secretary instead. So someone else will be Fed chair... and it sounds like the market will know Trump's choice soon enough. Ben Hunt of the Epsilon Theory newsletter joins the Stansberry Investor Hour this week to discuss the trouble brewing in the credit market and why it'll lead to a larger financial crisis... the potential havoc that AI could wreak on the economy due to energy consumption... and how you can profit by following stories in the market. Click here to watch our entire interview on our YouTube page... or listen to the audio version on our website or wherever you listen to podcasts, like Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or Audible. Just search "Stansberry Investor Hour" and subscribe to get more episodes when they go live. Recommended Links: Move Your Money by November 26 (Tomorrow) This year's biggest story: Washington is targeting unknown resource stocks – and sending them SOARING. Some have doubled. Six stocks in this industry are up 500%-plus. And Rick Rule, who has made 1,000X twice in his career, now says a controversial new government shift is creating a once-in-50-years setup. By tomorrow, click here to see this urgent briefing (includes a free stock recommendation). Something WORSE Than a Crash Is Coming The man who warned about the 2025 crash 13 days before it unfolded has a new warning: "The next few days could spark a financial disaster." But he's not predicting a recession... a dollar crisis... or anything of the kind. Instead, he has a much more peculiar warning and a radical new recommendation to review by December 3. New 52-week highs (as of 11/24/25): Barrick Mining (B), ProShares Ultra Nasdaq Biotechnology (BIB), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), Cencora (COR), Donaldson (DCI), EnerSys (ENS), Expeditors International of Washington (EXPD), Alphabet (GOOGL), Grail (GRAL), iShares Biotechnology Fund (IBB), IQVIA (IQV), Lumentum (LITE), Medtronic (MDT), Monster Beverage (MNST), Travelers (TRV), UGI (UGI), and Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV). A quiet mailbag today... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. All the best, Corey McLaughlin and Nick Koziol Baltimore, Maryland November 25, 2025 Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios. Returns represent the total return from the initial recommendation. Investment Buy Date Return Publication Analyst MSFT Microsoft 02/10/12 1,528.6% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter MSFT Microsoft 11/11/10 1,483.4% Retirement Millionaire Doc ADP Automatic Data Processing 10/09/08 933.0% Extreme Value Ferris BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway 04/01/09 796.7% Retirement Millionaire Doc WRB W.R. Berkley 03/15/12 709.8% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter GOOGL Alphabet 12/15/16 684.4% Retirement Millionaire Doc AFG American Financial 10/11/12 502.4% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter ALS-T Altius Minerals 03/26/09 499.7% Extreme Value Ferris AXP American Express 08/04/16 485.3% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter HSY Hershey 12/07/07 479.6% Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio. Top 10 Totals 5 Stansberry's Investment Advisory Porter 3 Retirement Millionaire Doc 2 Extreme Value Ferris Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Investment Buy Date Return Publication Analyst WSTETH/USD Wrapped Staked Ethereum 12/07/18 2,271.9% Crypto Capital Wade BTC/USD Bitcoin 11/27/18 2,247.6% Crypto Capital Wade ONE/USD Harmony 12/16/19 1,035.8% Crypto Capital Wade POL/USD Polygon 02/26/21 653.6% Crypto Capital Wade QRL/USD Quantum Resistant Ledger 01/19/21 567.3% Crypto Capital Wade Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio. Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios Investment Duration Gain Publication Analyst Nvidia (NVDA)^* 5.96 years 1,466% Venture Tech. Lashmet Microsoft (MSFT)^ 12.74 years 1,185% Retirement Millionaire Doc Inovio Pharma. (INO)^ 1.01 years 1,139% Venture Tech. Lashmet Rocket Lab (RKLB)^ 2.35 years 1,034% Venture Tech. Lashmet Seabridge Gold (SA)^ 4.20 years 995% Sjug Conf. Sjuggerud Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B)^ 16.13 years 800% Retirement Millionaire Doc Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) 1.95 years 775% Amer. Moonshots Root Rite Aid 8.5% bond 4.97 years 773% True Income Williams PNC Warrants (PNC-WS) 6.16 years 706% True Wealth Systems Sjuggerud Maxar Technologies (MAXR)^ 1.90 years 691% Venture Tech. Lashmet ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks. * Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of this Nvidia position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%. Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of Fame Top 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio Investment Duration Gain Publication Analyst Band Protocol (BAND) 0.31 years 1,169% Crypto Capital Wade Terra (LUNA) 0.41 years 1,166% Crypto Capital Wade Polymesh (POLYX) 3.84 years 1,157% Crypto Capital Wade Frontier (FRONT) 0.09 years 979% Crypto Capital Wade Binance Coin (BNB) 1.78 years 963% Crypto Capital Wade You have received this e-mail as part of your subscription to Stansberry Digest. If you no longer want to receive e-mails from Stansberry Digest click here. Published by Stansberry Research. You're receiving this e-mail at pahovis@aol.com. Stansberry Research welcomes comments or suggestions at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. This address is for feedback only. For questions about your account or to speak with customer service, call 888-261-2693 (U.S.) or 443-839-0986 (international) Monday-Friday, 9 a.m.-5 p.m. Eastern time. 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