🦉 The Night Owl Newsletter for August 13th

Unsubscribe Silver Demand Is Exploding—and Supply Can’t Keep Up (From Priority Gold) 3 Earnings Reports Give a Snapshot of Consumer Sentiment Written by Nathan Reiff Earnings season is not only an opportunity for investors to evaluate the success (or lack thereof) of individual companies in the last several months, but also a chance to get a more general reading on larger issues facing the economy. In 2025, with inflation creeping upward again and tariffs jolting the market in different directions, consumer sentiment is one of these larger issues.  How do American consumers feel as their spending gets stretched thinner amid rising prices and widespread economic uncertainty? While using individual firms as a proxy for broader sentiment has limitations, investors may nonetheless draw insight from considering three major consumer-facing brands: McDonald's Corp. (NYSE: MCD), Shopify Inc. (NYSE: SHOP), and DoorDash Inc. (NASDAQ: DASH). In many ways, the success each of these firms experienced in the latest earnings round paints a rosy picture of consumer sentiment. Despite this, digging deeper will reveal reasons investors should be cautious going forward. Earnings Wins Across the Board Demonstrate Resilience All three of the firms above noted significant earnings wins for the year's second quarter, a sign of their resilience despite volatility in some corners of the market. Fast food titan McDonald's, for example, posted modest positive surprises in both top- and bottom-line performance as global systemwide sales climbed by 6% year-over-year (YOY), and the company remains on track to open some 2,200 new locations this year alone. These results suggest that consumer sentiment toward affordable dining options remains strong, even as broader economic uncertainty lingers. McDonald’s menu innovation and digital ordering initiatives appear to be resonating with customers, helping sustain brand loyalty.  If confidence in household budgets continues to improve, the company could see even stronger traffic and sales growth in the quarters ahead. Retail giant Shopify reflects a different aspect of the consumer space. Given that the company's clients are merchants keen to use Shopify's platform and services to market, sell, and manage their products to customers, the company is a step removed from the everyday consumer. Still, the company's strong earnings results suggest that optimism is warranted more broadly in retail. Shopify's revenue climbed by an impressive 31% YOY, and the company also provided similarly optimistic forward guidance. These results indicate that merchants remain confident in consumer demand and are willing to invest in expanding their online presence. Continued growth in e-commerce adoption points to a sustained shift in shopping habits, which benefits Shopify’s long-term outlook. If consumer sentiment holds firm, the company could see both transaction volume and merchant subscriptions accelerate further. DoorDash similarly reported better-than-expected results on both earnings and revenue, as U.S. marketplace orders climbed YOY alongside improved delivery times and a surge in membership in the company's subscription DashPass service. In response, shares of DASH surged to an all-time high. Despite the higher costs to consumers associated with ordering food for delivery compared to visiting a restaurant in person, DoorDash seems to have still drawn significant interest. This suggests that convenience remains a strong driver of consumer behavior, even in the face of cost pressures. Strong demand for services like DoorDash can indicate that consumers still feel confident in their discretionary spending. If that confidence holds, the company may continue to see elevated order volumes and subscriber growth well into the next quarter. Nonetheless, Reasons to Exercise Caution Despite these wins, however, there may still be reasons for investors to exercise caution regarding consumer sentiment. First, looking at McDonald's earnings on a more granular level, while U.S. comparable sales did climb by 2.5% YOY, low-income consumer visits declined by double digits relative to the second quarter of last year. This puts the firm in a difficult position as inflation pressures suggest raising prices. The fact that consumers at the lower end of the income spectrum have avoided McDonald's—as part of the fast food category, which has traditionally been one of the most affordable restaurants nationwide—may signal a red flag for future investors. Additionally, Shopify's results may not paint quite as rosy a picture as they seem on an initial viewing. Despite impressive revenue growth, company executives explained that the firm's European business was the primary driver of these gains. Further, revenue gains may have been more attributable to adding new large-scale merchants on the platform than increased customer spending. Investors should remember that earnings reports are necessarily backward-facing, and that while they can suggest emerging or continuing trends, they do not guarantee any future performance. With several new tariffs taking effect in August and disappointing inflation results in the summer months, companies in the retail industry and the broader consumer discretionary sector could be facing an even more challenging external environment than they did in the second quarter. The S&P 500 remains up 8% year-to-date, and plenty of analysts are bullish on each of the companies listed above. Still, the warning signs in these earnings reports may be enough to give some investors reason to hesitate as we enter the year's second half.  READ THIS STORY ONLINE Think you missed gold’s boom? Think again (Ad) If you've been watching gold's historic run and wondering if it's too late… I've got good news. Because there's a $15 fund tied directly to gold's surge that's still paying massive income… Up to 64% annually — with payouts every 30 days. CLICK HERE TO SEE HOW TO SECURE THE NEXT PAYOUT BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE. Amazon’s Bears Have Raised the White Flag—Get Excited Written by Sam Quirke Shares of tech giant Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) dropped more than 10% in just two sessions to start the month, immediately slipping into a technical correction. The move came after the company’s Q2 earnings report, a set of good results but not quite good enough to justify the 45% rally since April. While headline beats and solid performance across most business lines impressed, weaker-than-expected guidance took some of the shine off. The pullback came right as the broader market was losing steam; only the opening short-term traders needed to lock in gains. For the bears, it was the long-awaited moment: a chance to finally see the deeper correction, if not the outright downtrend, they’d been predicting. Yet barely a week later, their momentum already looks spent. The signs suggest they’ve waved the white flag, and it may be time to get bullish on Amazon again. The Technical Floor Is Holding Firm Perhaps the most important sign comes from the chart. For the past week, sellers have been unable to push Amazon below its post-earnings low from Monday. That’s not for lack of trying; the stock has been tested multiple times, but each dip has been met with strong buying interest. This matters because it signals a massive source of demand sitting at what the bulls see as a discount. The initial rebound off those lows was sharp, and while the stock has been consolidating in recent sessions, it has refused to give back those gains. That’s a key point: the panic selling has already dried up, and most of the profit-taking has run its course. As long as Amazon shares can tread water above $220, they should have the foundation they need for the next leg higher. That level now represents a clear line in the sand for both bulls and bears, and investors should watch it closely.  Analyst Sentiment Is Still Overwhelmingly Bullish Any sign of real bearish momentum would likely be reflected in analyst downgrades, and we’re simply not seeing it. The opposite is happening. This month, the Goldman Sachs and Cowen teams have reiterated their Buy ratings, joining the long list of bullish calls that have followed the stock for months. This steady stream of bullish coverage is exactly the backdrop that can turn a post-earnings dip into a launchpad. There are also fresh price targets to consider, with some reaching up to $280, which indicates an upside of nearly 30% from current levels. If Amazon can regain its pre-earnings momentum, this would send the stock into blue-sky territory, and it feels quite feasible. With the company consistently outperforming in its key business units, from AWS to advertising, and the broader stock market experiencing some of its best weeks of the year, the potential here is real.  The “Bad News” Is Already Priced In If we accept that the weaker-than-expected guidance in July’s report was the main culprit for the drop, it now looks like the market has fully digested it. The reality is that Amazon’s business lines are firing on nearly all cylinders, and macro conditions remain supportive for big tech. When you strip away the noise, this sell-off has the hallmarks of healthy profit-taking after a big run. Guidance-driven dips tend to fade quickly when the underlying fundamentals are strong, and it feels like that’s what’s playing out here. Consider that broader market sentiment is still very much in risk-on mode, which means that, short of something breaking, high-quality names like Amazon don’t, and even can’t, stay down for long. Bulls Back in Control If the stock can maintain its hold above $220, the next logical target is $235, where it was trading right before the report came out. From there, attention will shift to February’s all-time high around the $240 mark, and beyond that to $280, which multiple analysts are targeting. Unless the bears can quickly come up with a fresh catalyst, it’s hard to see them regaining control. Amazon has spent most of the past four months showing investors its ability to rally seemingly in one direction for weeks on end, and it could be about to do the same again.  READ THIS STORY ONLINE Silver Demand Is Exploding—and Supply Can’t Keep Up (Ad) Elon's Next Market Move Could Send Silver Soaring Every industry Elon Musk touches explodes—from Tesla to SpaceX to AI. And now, whispers are growing that his next move could be in silver. Why? Because silver is the lifeblood of EVs, solar panels, and AI tech. SMART MONEY IS ALREADY WATCHING SILVER CLOSELY. Tempus AI’s Strong Q2 Fuels Growth Story—More Upside Ahead? Written by Leo Miller Over the past two years, one of the most interesting healthcare companies to go public is none other than Tempus AI (NASDAQ: TEM). In a world where healthcare IPOs are typically dominated by biotech companies that generate little to no revenue, Tempus stands out. The firm has posted sales of approximately $952 million over the last twelve months and has made strong improvements in profitability. The stock has also been a winner for shareholders. As of the Aug. 12 close, Tempus has provided a return of 89% in 2025, nearly delivering on the double-bagger potential forecasted in December 2024. Tempus recently reported its Q2 2025 earnings. Below, we’ll dive into the details of this report and gain an updated outlook on the stock. Ultimately, is there reason to believe that Tempus can continue to deliver the types of returns seen over the past eight months, or should investors temper their expectations? All data uses information as of the Aug. 12 close. Tempus Executes Well in Q2, Sees Positive EBITDA in 2025 In Q2, Tempus generated sales of just under $315 million, equating to a massive growth rate of just under 90%. This solidly beat Wall Street estimates, which forecasted growth of around 79%. Tempus’s adjusted loss per share also came in slightly better than expected at 22 cents. The company also improved its profitability significantly, both on a yearly and sequential basis. Adjusted gross margin increased to 62.8%. This compares to 61.4% in Q1 2025 and 56.8% in Q2 2024. The firm’s adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin (EBITDA) increased to -1.8%. This compares to -6.3% in Q1 2025 and -18.8% in Q2 2024. Tempus also boosted its full-year revenue guidance from $1.25 billion to $1.26 billion. Tempus says it remains on track to generate $5 million of adjusted EBITDA in 2025, compared to an adjusted EBITDA loss of $110 million in 2024. The big takeaway? Things are going according to plan at Tempus; its offerings are seeing robust and accelerating demand growth, and it still expects to achieve adjusted operating profitability this year. For investors, seeing management execute on the plan it has previously outlined is always a good sign. Morgan Stanley Boosts Tempus Target, But Near-Term Upside Appears Limited After Tempus AI’s Q2 earnings release, analysts at Morgan Stanley increased their price target on the stock from $65 to $68. However, the MarketBeat consensus price target on Tempus is just over $65. This indicates a slight downside in shares versus their Aug. 12 closing price of over $66. Still, recently updated targets are slightly more bullish. Among targets updated since June 25, the average is approximately $68.60, implying just over 3% upside. The stock has yet to close higher than $90. Achieving this level would require an upward move of around 36%. Overall, these numbers indicate that is unlikely that Tempus will achieve similar types of near-term returns that it has seen since the beginning of 2025. Additionally, if the stock continues to trade at current levels or higher, it could face elevated downside risk going into its next earnings release. Shares were trading at around $70 going into the stock’s Q4 2024 release. Very slight earnings misses that quarter caused shares to plummet 15% in one day. TEM Revenue Is Small Compared to R&D Spending, Highlighting Long-Term Opportunity Despite the uninspiring near-term upside implied by Wall Street targets, the long-term opportunity for Tempus AI shares looks much more significant. One study found that in 2021, pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies spent $276 billion on research and development (R&D). As companies use Tempus AI's solutions to enhance their R&D efforts, their R&D spending translates into revenue for Tempus. Although these numbers and assumptions are far from perfect, they help illustrate Tempus AI's large total addressable market. Its expected revenue of $1.26 billion in 2025 is a tiny fraction of that $276 billion R&D spending figure. This shows how Tempus has a big runway for long-term revenue growth, supporting the company’s long-term bull case. Still, investors will need to continue monitoring the company’s growth and profitability improvements. This will help indicate whether Tempus can actually capitalize on its large potential in a sustainable way.  READ THIS STORY ONLINE Why AMZN, GOOG, MSFT might destroy NVDA (Ad) Investing Legend Hints the End May be Near for These 3 Iconic Stocks Futurist Eric Fry say Amazon, Tesla and Nvidia are all on the verge of major disruption. To help protect anyone with money invested in them, he's sharing three exciting stocks to replace them with. He gives away the names and tickers completely free in his brand-new "Sell This, Buy That" broadcast. CLICK TO GET THE FULL DETAILS ON ERIC FRY'S "NVIDIA ALTERNATIVE" RIGHT HERE. More Stories If Qualcomm Holds $145, Its Next Move Could Be Massive 3 Battery Stocks to Buy and Hold for the Rest of the Decade Man Who Called Nvidia at $1.10 Says Buy This Now... (Ad) Intel's White House Reset: From Political Storm to a Clearer Sky NFL and WWE Land on ESPN—The Impact on Disney and TKO Stocks 3 Stocks to Consider as Tension Builds in Energy Markets Brutal 2025 for Sarepta—Analysts Still Call for 179% Upside The Night Owl is a financial newsletter that provides in-depth market analysis on stocks of interest to individual investors. Published by MarketBeat and Early Bird Publishing, The Night Owl is delivered around 9:00 PM Eastern Sunday through Thursday. If you give a hoot about the market, The Night Owl is the newsletter for you. View as a Web Page     If you need assistance with your account, feel free to email our U.S. based support team at contact@marketbeat.com.   Unsubscribe   © 2006-2025 MarketBeat Media, LLC.  345 N Reid Place #620, Sioux Falls, S.D. 57103. 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